There is a lot of speculation with tons of misinformation in the news about the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. I am going to try to summarize three of the biggest concerns and give some ideas on what to do. All three of these are tied to one another and will effect you directly in one way or another. Life as we have known it, is about to change.
Cyber Warfare
A cyber-attack can maliciously disable computers, steal data, or use a breached computer as a launch point for other attacks. The conflict has already seen its share of cyber-warfare with attacks originating on Ukraine spilling over to neighboring countries. Trade and other sanctions against Russia from the US and NATO will likely mean reprisals. This will have impacts on US Supply lines, manufacturing power generation, agriculture, and e-commerce. One large area of concern is infrastructure that would effect power, water, internet, and other network dependent services. Causing operation to slow or cease can reduce ability of goods and items along with services such as internet, TV cable services, online as well as personal banking.
Supply lines
The increase in fuel prices and various protests including the Trucker convoy as well as existing interruptions from Covid protocols is having a marked effect on shipping across the US in both Truck and Rail. Existing supplies are expected to be delayed or may not reach destinations. Imports of items from the Black Sea area will be reduced. A significant portion of the world’s supply of rare metals and other resources including agriculture to western European nations flows from Ukraine. It has been halted in some areas due to blockades of Ukrainian ports and the Denial of Airspace by both sides of the conflict. This will have severe impacts on manufacturing basic items including electronic chips and superconductors. Oil prices are over $100 a barrel with aluminum, palladium up over 20% in the last week alone. This reduction in supply and increase in cost will further impact supply chains in the US.
Economy
Due to the impacts on supply, world economy, and e-commerce from the conflict. Energy cost will rise in the US. While imports will see a small impact Russia and Ukraine account for about a quarter of the world’s wheat supply. The US economy already strained and the current administration not making any changed to the planned interest rate hikes coming in May. The SWIFT exchange is in the process of removing Russia. This will further increase the cost of doing business for certain entities. With more of the world’s governments and economies shifting to a war footing combined with the fuel cost and supply interruptions, many Americans from the working class on down will see major impacts to household financial bottom lines.
Summary
Inflation is expected to continue to rise as the conflict increases it may spread across other borders further affecting cost and availability of everyday items. Availability and cost of normal items we use every day will affect you and your family. There is a potential for even greater impacts that can affect the livelihoods of many.
I live in a coastal community and prepare mostly for hurricane and flooding threats. I have moved my family preparedness level to the second highest degree of readiness. Due to the geographical area, we are in we normally prep to bug out if necessary. In this case and for most folks it may be a better plan to bug in. Either way being prepared is the name of the game and It’s time to top off supplies.
Gather and store common use items like batteries, light bulbs, candles, and water enough for your family, and other short life span items. I work some items in two-week supply. Unless it can be long term stored or I can do without. Follow your plan, if you need help with a plan reach out to your AMCON team members or connect here in the comments. We have a world of resources and help for you.
Purchase trade items like bottled liquor (vodka is best in my opinion) cigarettes and other durable items that people will run out of quickly.
Top-off and renew gas and fuel. Do not forget your heating and cooking fuels. Oil for your vehicle and generator.
Check all communication and other electronics and ensure you do not need to purchase anything. If you have been waiting on that Any-tone portable multi band radio, Now is the time, as it may not be available soon.
Have a good amount of cash accessible. Do not store it all in one place and make it hard to find. Do not leave it in the most common places. Do make a note of where items are stored and keep that hidden as well.
References:
The Cyber Security Risk of an Escalating Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Paul R. Kolbe, Maria Robson Morrow, and Lauren Zabierek. Harvard business Review. Feb 24, 2022
https://hbr.org/2022/02/the-cybersecurity-risks-of-an-escalating-russia-ukraine-conflict
War in Ukraine Worsens Strained Supply Chains, From Auto Parts to Iron Ore. Alistair MacDonald and William Boston. The Wall Street Journal. Feb 27, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/war-ukraine-supply-chain-russia-oil-11645995369
Factbox: How the Ukraine conflict could affect the U.S. economy. Ann Saphir, Jonelle Marte and Lindsay Dunsmuir. REUTERS, Feb 24 2022
https://www.reuters.com/world/how-ukraine-conflict-could-affect-us-economy-2022-02-24/
Ukraine-Russia War: Impact on Gas, Stocks, Inflation, and the US Economy. Dan Avery C]Net Feb.26.2022
https://www.cnet.com/how-to/ukraine-russia-war-impact-on-gas-stocks-inflation-and-the-us-economy/
Analysis: SWIFT block deals crippling blow to Russia; leaves room to tighten. Catherine Belton, Paritosh Bansal and Megan Davies RUTERS, Feb 27, 2022
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original author: J.J. and assisted by AISAT Team